Even if the immediate phase of conflict subsides, the Gulf is unlikely to return to the status quo. For Asia, the central question is no longer simply whether the Strait of Hormuz is open. It is whether the waterway remains reliable, predictable and politically insulated from coercion.

That distinction now matters more than ever. For China and other major Asian importers, it is a question of whether energy flows, shipping routes and sanctions exposure are increasingly being shaped by a crisis...