The Iran war has delivered a systemic shock to the Gulf’s security architecture and economic miracle. Two taboos were rapidly broken. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and close to a quarter of seaborne crude, was paralysed for sustained periods. Iranian strikes reached deep into Gulf territory, hitting ports, energy terminals and airports with a frequency that exceeded attacks on Israel.

War-risk insurance premiums and tanker charter rates surged...